The results of the elections were a surprise to almost everyone, for just about whatever candidate you may have supported. Nationally a divided government of some sort was expected by most, in some fashion. Within New Hampshire, it was probably anyone’s guess. The winners say they knew they would win, the losers reverted to at best “nauseously optimistic” on Election Day. Joy and sorrow came fast overnight. We are now on a journey where we will learn much about our nation, our Constitution, and our idea of getting along in a democracy. Let’s consider all the ways this can go: ch-ch-changes ahead for sure, David!
We’ve seen a Trump administration before, but not with this big win and both houses of Congress. He is what many always seem to look for: someone not part of the Washington machine, not part of a party machine, not even a lawyer! This type person always seems attractive to a broad audience, the outsider who can fix whatever perceived wrongs there are.
There actually was great hope in 2016 when he came into office, with a Cabinet team mainly stocked with Party and capable folk. It was certainly more conservative than some might care for, and we missed an opportunity to elect the first woman President. But a swing back and forth between the parties is probably healthy for democracy – as long as the swing doesn’t go too far. I myself thought (hoped) that the office would make the man, and he would bring change but would not go far astray. His failed legislation – repeal of the Affordable Care Act – was a bullet dodged. I can’t even imagine what might have happened if it was repealed: free market healthcare? His tax bill could be seen as a success: reduction of the SALT deductions was only fair, and the increase in the standard deduction saved many households (mine included) hours and hours of work. You can argue against the reduction in the corporate earnings tax, and elimination of easy deduction of charitable contributions, but those items come and go and policies change. But changing the tax code was a breeze compared to really cutting spending. Until some administration seriously takes on Defense, Social Security, and Medicare not much can change.
We can expect President Trump to be smarter than last time. Many of his advisors and Cabinet appointments apparently are valued according to loyalty over expertise. Elon Musk may be brilliant, but – as George Will recently put it: “The richest man in the world is about to get a free public education.” No change happens without someone’s ox being gored. We’ve been down these paths before.
The worst case scenario is if the Senate and the Congress are so totally aligned with the Trump agenda that no opposition, no questions, no damping is imposed. Thar’s where monsters dwell. Trump’s own bombastic way of dealing with critics is also a grave danger. Fortunately, even when a single party government has been place, the internal differences have always stymied the most radical changes. But it is rough on many as it plays out. Stay tuned.
Is the Federal government an overwhelming administrative state? For sure. Should any organization continually self-examine and clear the cobwebs, the traditions, the “well we always do it that way” approach? Absolutely. This would be a great outcome of the Trump presidency, even if we might disagree and oppose some changes. To quote someone else, let’s not let a crisis go wasted. Let’s look to lever changes that will benefit all – at least from this viewpoint.